Opportunity summary
Score7.0Public score shown from the verified overall while the stale axis breakdown refreshesThis canonical paper page includes Commercialization Proof and Related Resources.
ARXIV:2603.23660 · GAME AI · SUBMITTED 02 APR · 02:30 UTC · FRESHNESS STALE
ARXIV:2603.23660GAME AISUBMITTED 02 APR · 02:30 UTCFRESHNESS STALEMarc-Antoine Provost · Nejc Ilenic · Christopher Solinas · Philippe Beardsell · arXiv
A standardized benchmark and API to evaluate AI agents in complex poker games, revealing significant gaps in current LLM reasoning capabilities.
Opportunity summary
Pain A standardized benchmark and API to evaluate AI agents in complex poker games, revealing significant gaps in current LLM reasoning capabilities.
Evidence 0 refs | 0 sources | 17% coverage
Blocker Evidence unverified
A standardized benchmark and API to evaluate AI agents in complex poker games, revealing significant gaps in current LLM reasoning capabilities. The benchmark evaluates agents against GTO Wizard AI, a state-of-the-art superhuman poker agent…
We introduce GTO Wizard Benchmark, a public API and standardized evaluation framework for benchmarking algorithms in Heads-Up No-Limit Texas Hold'em (HUNL). The benchmark evaluates agents against GTO Wizard AI, a state-of-the-art superhuman poker agent…
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 7.0/10 on the public viability pass. Variance is a fundamental challenge in poker evaluation; we address this by integrating AIVAT, a provably unbiased variance reduction technique that achieves equivalent statistical…
Game AI moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 7.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
Continue into Read for claims, analysis, references, and neighboring papers.
Opportunity summary
Score7.0Public score shown from the verified overall while the stale axis breakdown refreshesAnalysis summary
A standardized benchmark and API to evaluate AI agents in complex poker games, revealing significant gaps in current LLM reasoning capabilities.
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WATCHTOWER
No verified watchtower monitor rows yet.
FORESIGHT
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OPPORTUNITYKERNEL CHANGES SINCE LAST VIEW
No verified OpportunityKernel changes since the last view.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE UPDATES
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RELATED PAPER UPDATES
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SIGNAL CANVAS HISTORY AND DELTAS
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TIMELINE
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BUZZ
Buzz trend pending.
Paper Pack
10.48550/arXiv.2603.23660A standardized benchmark and API to evaluate AI agents in complex poker games, revealing significant gaps in current LLM reasoning capabilities.
Abstract
We introduce GTO Wizard Benchmark, a public API and standardized evaluation framework for benchmarking algorithms in Heads-Up No-Limit Texas Hold'em (HUNL). The benchmark evaluates agents against GTO Wizard AI, a state-of-the-art superhuman poker agent that approximates Nash Equilibria, and defeated Slumbot, the 2018 Annual Computer Poker Competition champion and previous strongest publicly accessible HUNL benchmark, by $19.4$ $\pm$ $4.1$ bb/100. Variance is a fundamental challenge in poker evaluation; we address this by integrating AIVAT, a provably unbiased variance reduction technique that achieves equivalent statistical significance with ten times fewer hands than naive Monte Carlo evaluation. We conduct a comprehensive benchmarking study of state-of-the-art large language models under zero-shot conditions, including GPT-5.4, Claude Opus 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Grok 4, and others. Initial results and analysis reveal dramatic progress in LLM reasoning over recent years, yet all models remain far below the baseline established by our benchmark. Qualitative analysis reveals clear opportunities for improvement, including representation and the ability to reason over hidden states. This benchmark provides researchers with a precise and quantifiable setting to evaluate advances in planning and reasoning in multi-agent systems with partial observability.
Source availability
PDF linkedThe paper record includes a public PDF URL.
Extraction status
Derived fallbackRead summaries are estimated from adjacent metadata, not verified extraction rows.
Proof status
unverified0 refs; 0 sources; 17% coverage.
What was readable
Derived fallback: Estimated from adjacent evidence; not verified from source.
Viability
Time to MVP
Commercial
Export
Preparing verified analysis
Dimensions overall score 7.0
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 7.0/10 on the public viability pass. Variance is a fundamental challenge in poker evaluation; we address this by integrating AIVAT, a provably unbiased variance reduction technique that achieves equivalent statistical significance with ten t...
PROBLEM
A standardized benchmark and API to evaluate AI agents in complex poker games, revealing significant gaps in current LLM reasoning capabilities. The benchmark evaluates agents against GTO Wizard AI, a state-of-the-art superhuman poker agent that approximates Nash Equilibria, and...
METHOD
We introduce GTO Wizard Benchmark, a public API and standardized evaluation framework for benchmarking algorithms in Heads-Up No-Limit Texas Hold'em (HUNL). The benchmark evaluates agents against GTO Wizard AI, a state-of-the-art superhuman poker agent that approximates Nash Equ...
WHY NOW
Game AI moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 7.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
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Reference metadata is not materialized in the public index yet. The source PDF remains the authority; cache refresh is optional.
CITED BY
No citing papers are indexed in the public S2S graph yet. This is an explicit zero-signal state, not a hidden lookup.
Foundation
Owned Distribution
Get the weekly shortlist of commercializable papers, benchmark movers, and proof receipts that matter for product execution.
Abstract-backed public claims while anchored extraction refreshes.
A standardized benchmark and API to evaluate AI agents in complex poker games, revealing significant gaps in current LLM reasoning capabilities. The benchmark evaluates agents against GTO Wizard AI, a state-of-the-art superhuman poker agent that approximates Nash Equilibria, and defeated Slumbot, the 2018 Annual Computer Poker Competition champion and previous strongest publicly accessible HUNL benchmark, by $19.4$ $\pm$ $4.1$ bb/100.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
We introduce GTO Wizard Benchmark, a public API and standardized evaluation framework for benchmarking algorithms in Heads-Up No-Limit Texas Hold'em (HUNL). The benchmark evaluates agents against GTO Wizard AI, a state-of-the-art superhuman poker agent that approximates Nash Equilibria, and defeated Slumbot, the 2018 Annual Computer Poker Competition champion and previous strongest publicly accessible HUNL benchmark, by $19.4$ $\pm$ $4.1$ bb/100.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 7.0/10 on the public viability pass. Variance is a fundamental challenge in poker evaluation; we address this by integrating AIVAT, a provably unbiased variance reduction technique that achieves equivalent statistical significance with ten times fewer hands than naive Monte Carlo evaluation. Code availability is flagged in the production record; the public repository link still needs proof alignment.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Game AI moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 7.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Paper-native neighborhood for concepts, methods, materials, markets, and competitors. Missing lanes stay labeled instead of disappearing behind commercialization gates.
Concepts
Methods
Materials
Markets
Competitors
A standardized benchmark and API to evaluate AI agents in complex poker games, revealing significant gaps in current LLM reasoning capabilities.
Segment
Game AI
Adoption evidence
No public code link in the paper record yet
Commercial read
7.0/10 public viability
Direct
Adjacent
Substitute
Unknown
No indexed public discussion is attached to 2603.23660 yet. That is a visibility signal, not a blank module: the monitor is watching the public channels below.
Hacker News
Not indexed yet
Not indexed yet
Bluesky
Not indexed yet
Conflicting
/api/v1/paper/gto-wizard-benchmark/paper-pack/api/v1/paper/gto-wizard-benchmark/build-passport/api/openapi.json/api/mcpsciencetostartup://surfaces/paper-workspacepaper_packbuild_passportopportunity_kernelforesightsource_proofevidence_state{
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"endpoints": {
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"build_passport": "/api/v1/paper/gto-wizard-benchmark/build-passport",
"mcp_resource": "sciencetostartup://surfaces/paper-workspace"
}
}Canonical route, proof status, last verified, refs, sources, and coverage.
Page Freshness
Canonical route: /paper/gto-wizard-benchmark
This page is showing the last landed evidence receipt and score bundle because the latest proof data is outside the freshness window.
Endpoint list, payload shape, route context, and copyable handoff data.
Agent Handoff
Canonical ID gto-wizard-benchmark | Route /paper/gto-wizard-benchmark
REST example
curl https://sciencetostartup.com/api/v1/agent-handoff/paper/gto-wizard-benchmarkMCP example
{
"tool": "get_paper",
"arguments": {
"arxiv_id": "2603.23660"
}
}source_context
{
"surface": "paper",
"mode": "paper",
"query": "GTO Wizard Benchmark",
"normalized_query": "2603.23660",
"route": "/paper/gto-wizard-benchmark",
"paper_ref": "gto-wizard-benchmark",
"topic_slug": null,
"benchmark_ref": null,
"dataset_ref": null
}Verdict, compute envelope, blockers, signature state, and receipt links.
Paper proof page receipt window
/buildability/gto-wizard-benchmark
Subject: GTO Wizard Benchmark
Verdict
Watch
Verdict is Watch because viability or proof quality is intermediate and should be re-evaluated before execution.
Time to first demo
Insufficient data
No first-demo timestamp, owner estimate, or elapsed demo receipt is attached to this surface.
Structured compute envelope
Insufficient data
No data, compute, hardware, memory, latency, dependency, or serving requirement receipt is attached.
Visual citations from the paper document graph.
The application/ld+json payload rendered for agents.
{
"@context": "https://schema.org",
"@graph": [
{
"@type": "WebPage",
"@id": "https://sciencetostartup.com/paper/gto-wizard-benchmark#webpage",
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"isAccessibleForFree": true,
"isPartOf": {
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},
"datePublished": "2026-03-24T19:04:04.000Z",
"author": [
{
"@type": "Person",
"name": "Marc-Antoine Provost"
},
{
"@type": "Person",
"name": "Nejc Ilenic"
},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"additionalProperty": [
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"name": "Game AI",
"item": "https://sciencetostartup.com/topics"
},
{
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}Receipt path
/buildability/gto-wizard-benchmark
Paper ref
gto-wizard-benchmark
arXiv id
2603.23660
Generated at
2026-04-02T02:30:40.136Z
Evidence freshness
stale
Last verification
2026-04-02T02:30:40.136Z
Sources
0
References
0
Coverage
17%
Lineage hash
9e7b89e943ea99876e91ccab879a7019400d5df25c012edde2897480d4f498cc
Canonical opportunity-kernel lineage hash.
External signature
unsigned_external
No founder, registry, pilot, or production-adoption signature is attached to this receipt.
Verification
not_verified
Verification is blocked until an external signature is provided.
Verification pending / evidence receipt incomplete
repo_url
references
0/3 checks · 0%
Build Passport
Build passport pending - Proof Lab budget No verified cost estimate / $7.00 cap
status
missing
reason
passport_row_missing
proof status
unverified
cost/budget
No verified cost estimate
confidence low
next verification path
Build brief missing until Build Passport data exists.
Source missing: Build Passport payload.
Experiment plan missing until prototype path is available.
No prototype path attached.
Validation checklist missing until required assets, cost, and regulatory flags are verified.
No checklist artifact is attached to the Build Passport payload.
Derived signals show verified:false until source-backed receipts exist.
Evidence coverage
OpportunityKernel evidence_receipt
0 refs / 0 sources / 17% coverage
stale
Verify missing sources before using this as buyer proof. verified:false
Build readiness
BuildPassport EvidenceState
passport absent
stale
Run Proof Lab or inspect typed missing state. verified:false
Artifact maturity
GitHub and Hugging Face maturity payloads
No public artifact surface observed
stale
Open source artifacts or mark the gap as missing. verified:false
Technical feasibility
partial
Current read
Runnable path is not fully verified.
Evidence
No Build Passport payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Run minimal reproduction from the Build Passport prototype path.
Market urgency
missing
Current read
Buyer urgency is not verified from source.
No named scientific founder assigned.
Paper authors are not treated as operators without consent.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Prototype owner missing.
Build Passport does not name an implementer.
People
No named person assigned.
ARTIFACTS
No public artifacts yet.
DEFENSIBILITY
Defensibility and confidence evidence pending.
Evidence
0 references, 0 sources, 17% evidence coverage.
Gaps
Next test
Collect buyer interview, deployment evidence, or cited demand signal.
Buyer clarity
missing
Current read
No budget owner is verified for this paper.
Evidence
Build tab has no CRM, procurement, or operator source.
Gaps
Next test
Map target operator, economic buyer, and procurement trigger.
Defensibility
missing
Current read
Defensibility signals are missing.
Evidence
No defensibility receipt attached.
Gaps
Next test
Refresh defensibility bars with source receipts.
Integration burden
missing
Current read
No public implementation surface observed.
Evidence
No GitHub or Hugging Face payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Write integration checklist from prototype path and target workflow.
Capital intensity
missing
Current read
No observed cost estimate is verified.
Evidence
Cost passport has no observed_usd value.
Gaps
Next test
Run cost passport or mark the cost field not applicable.
Regulatory load
missing
Current read
No regulatory classification is attached.
Evidence
Build Passport ledger does not include regulatory flags.
Gaps
Next test
Classify regulatory flags before commercialization planning.
Gaps
Next verification path
Operator workflow not sourced.
No buyer or workflow interview attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
No GTM owner verified.
No CRM or outreach source attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Regulatory need unclassified.
No clinical or regulatory source attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path