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Foresight

Verifiable prediction intelligence. We predict which science papers become startups — and we prove we’re right.

Public freshness

Foresight public backtests

ready
Observed
2026-04-20
Fresh until
2026-05-20
Source count
1
BacktestPredictionsReasoningFlywheelAPISandbox

Baseline: historical commercialization rate by viability bucket

No truthful public calibration buckets are published yet. We show an empty baseline until real observed counts land.

Viability score bucket → commercialization rate

Frozen Foresight replay: predicted vs actual

Each benchmark run freezes its model/formula version and replays scoring over a historical cohort. The calibration curve shows how predicted probabilities aligned with actual outcomes.

Current Corpus 2026 Q1Current-corpus replay over verified 2026 Q1 outcomes
69%
10%
8.5n=891
82%
16%
9.5n=109
Predicted Actual
Papers scored
1000
Outcomes known
108
Hit rate
10.8%

Featured examples

OSS traction (4935 GitHub stars)
Score 8.0 → oss_traction in 0mo
OSS traction (4073 GitHub stars)
Score 8.0 → oss_traction in 0mo
OSS traction (3111 GitHub stars)
Score 9.0 → oss_traction in 0mo