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ARXIV:2603.09309 · LLM EVALUATION · SUBMITTED 19 MAR · 18:48 UTC · FRESHNESS STALE
ARXIV:2603.09309LLM EVALUATIONSUBMITTED 19 MAR · 18:48 UTCFRESHNESS STALEarXiv
This research reveals how confidence scale design impacts the metacognitive performance of LLMs.
Opportunity summary
Pain This research reveals how confidence scale design impacts the metacognitive performance of LLMs.
Evidence 0 refs | 0 sources | 33% coverage
Blocker Evidence unverified
This research reveals how confidence scale design impacts the metacognitive performance of LLMs. We show that this design choice is not neutral.
Verbalized confidence, in which LLMs report a numerical certainty score, is widely used to estimate uncertainty in black-box settings, yet the confidence scale itself (typically 0--100) is rarely examined. We show that this design…
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. We show that this design choice is not neutral.
LLM Evaluation moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10.
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This research reveals how confidence scale design impacts the metacognitive performance of LLMs.
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10.48550/arXiv.2603.09309This research reveals how confidence scale design impacts the metacognitive performance of LLMs.
Abstract
Verbalized confidence, in which LLMs report a numerical certainty score, is widely used to estimate uncertainty in black-box settings, yet the confidence scale itself (typically 0--100) is rarely examined. We show that this design choice is not neutral. Across six LLMs and three datasets, verbalized confidence is heavily discretized, with more than 78% of responses concentrating on just three round-number values. To investigate this phenomenon, we systematically manipulate confidence scales along three dimensions: granularity, boundary placement, and range regularity, and evaluate metacognitive sensitivity using meta-d'. We find that a 0--20 scale consistently improves metacognitive efficiency over the standard 0--100 format, while boundary compression degrades performance and round-number preferences persist even under irregular ranges. These results demonstrate that confidence scale design directly affects the quality of verbalized uncertainty and should be treated as a first-class experimental variable in LLM evaluation.
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Dimensions overall score 4.0
PROBLEM
This research reveals how confidence scale design impacts the metacognitive performance of LLMs. We show that this design choice is not neutral.
METHOD
Verbalized confidence, in which LLMs report a numerical certainty score, is widely used to estimate uncertainty in black-box settings, yet the confidence scale itself (typically 0--100) is rarely examined. We show that this design choice is not neutral.
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. We show that this design choice is not neutral.
WHY NOW
LLM Evaluation moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10.
Abstract-backed public claims while anchored extraction refreshes.
This research reveals how confidence scale design impacts the metacognitive performance of LLMs. We show that this design choice is not neutral.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Verbalized confidence, in which LLMs report a numerical certainty score, is widely used to estimate uncertainty in black-box settings, yet the confidence scale itself (typically 0--100) is rarely examined. We show that this design choice is not neutral.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. We show that this design choice is not neutral.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
LLM Evaluation moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
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This research reveals how confidence scale design impacts the metacognitive performance of LLMs.
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LLM Evaluation
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