Opportunity summary
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ARXIV:2604.19533 · AGENTS · SUBMITTED 22 APR · 03:20 UTC · FRESHNESS STALE
ARXIV:2604.19533AGENTSSUBMITTED 22 APR · 03:20 UTCFRESHNESS STALEAlankrit Chona · Igor Kozlov · Ambuj Kumar · arXiv
An LLM agent benchmark for evaluating threat hunting capabilities in cybersecurity, revealing current model limitations.
Opportunity summary
Pain An LLM agent benchmark for evaluating threat hunting capabilities in cybersecurity, revealing current model limitations.
Evidence 0 refs | 3 sources | 50% coverage
Blocker Evidence unverified
An LLM agent benchmark for evaluating threat hunting capabilities in cybersecurity, revealing current model limitations. The benchmark wraps 106 real attack procedures from the OTRF Security-Datasets corpus - spanning 86 MITRE ATT&CK sub-techniques across…
We introduce the Cyber Defense Benchmark, a benchmark for measuring how well large language model (LLM) agents perform the core SOC analyst task of threat hunting: given a database of raw Windows event logs…
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 7.0/10 on the public viability pass. These results suggest that current LLMs are poorly suited for open-ended, evidence-driven threat hunting despite strong performance on curated Q&A security benchmarks. Code availability…
Agents moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 7.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
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Score7.0Public score shown from the verified overall while the stale axis breakdown refreshesAnalysis summary
An LLM agent benchmark for evaluating threat hunting capabilities in cybersecurity, revealing current model limitations.
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Paper Pack
10.48550/arXiv.2604.19533An LLM agent benchmark for evaluating threat hunting capabilities in cybersecurity, revealing current model limitations.
Abstract
We introduce the Cyber Defense Benchmark, a benchmark for measuring how well large language model (LLM) agents perform the core SOC analyst task of threat hunting: given a database of raw Windows event logs with no guided questions or hints, identify the exact timestamps of malicious events. The benchmark wraps 106 real attack procedures from the OTRF Security-Datasets corpus - spanning 86 MITRE ATT&CK sub-techniques across 12 tactics - into a Gymnasium reinforcement-learning environment. Each episode presents the agent with an in-memory SQLite database of 75,000-135,000 log records produced by a deterministic campaign simulator that time-shifts and entity-obfuscates the raw recordings. The agent must iteratively submit SQL queries to discover malicious event timestamps and explicitly flag them, scored CTF-style against Sigma-rule-derived ground truth. Evaluating five frontier models - Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Kimi K2.5, and Gemini 3 Flash - on 26 campaigns covering 105 of 106 procedures, we find that all models fail dramatically: the best model (Claude Opus 4.6) submits correct flags for only 3.8% of malicious events on average, and no run across any model ever finds all flags. We define a passing score as >= 50% recall on every ATT&CK tactic - the minimum bar for unsupervised SOC deployment. No model passes: the leader clears this bar on 5 of 13 tactics and the remaining four on zero. These results suggest that current LLMs are poorly suited for open-ended, evidence-driven threat hunting despite strong performance on curated Q&A security benchmarks.
Source availability
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Extraction status
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Proof status
unverified0 refs; 3 sources; 50% coverage.
What was readable
Derived fallback: Estimated from adjacent evidence; not verified from source.
Viability
Time to MVP
Commercial
Export
Preparing verified analysis
Dimensions overall score 7.0
PROBLEM
An LLM agent benchmark for evaluating threat hunting capabilities in cybersecurity, revealing current model limitations. The benchmark wraps 106 real attack procedures from the OTRF Security-Datasets corpus - spanning 86 MITRE ATT&CK sub-techniques across 12 tactics - into a Gym...
METHOD
We introduce the Cyber Defense Benchmark, a benchmark for measuring how well large language model (LLM) agents perform the core SOC analyst task of threat hunting: given a database of raw Windows event logs with no guided questions or hints, identify the exact timestamps of mali...
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 7.0/10 on the public viability pass. These results suggest that current LLMs are poorly suited for open-ended, evidence-driven threat hunting despite strong performance on curated Q&A security benchmarks. Code availability is flagged in the...
WHY NOW
Agents moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 7.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
{"file name": "input.pdf", "number of pages": 13, "author": "(anonymous)", "title": "(anonymous)", "creation date": "D:20260421071605+00'00'", "modification date": "D:20260421071605+00'00'", "kids": []}
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partial
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Concepts
Methods
Materials
Markets
Competitors
An LLM agent benchmark for evaluating threat hunting capabilities in cybersecurity, revealing current model limitations.
Segment
Agents
Adoption evidence
No public code link in the paper record yet
Commercial read
7.0/10 public viability
Direct
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CITED BY
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Commercially relevant
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2/3 checks · 67%
Build Passport
Build passport pending - Proof Lab budget No verified cost estimate / $7.00 cap
status
missing
reason
passport_row_missing
proof status
unverified
cost/budget
No verified cost estimate
confidence low
next verification path
Build brief missing until Build Passport data exists.
Source missing: Build Passport payload.
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No prototype path attached.
Validation checklist missing until required assets, cost, and regulatory flags are verified.
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Evidence coverage
OpportunityKernel evidence_receipt
0 refs / 3 sources / 50% coverage
stale
Verify missing sources before using this as buyer proof. verified:false
Build readiness
BuildPassport EvidenceState
passport absent
stale
Run Proof Lab or inspect typed missing state. verified:false
Artifact maturity
GitHub and Hugging Face maturity payloads
No public artifact surface observed
stale
Open source artifacts or mark the gap as missing. verified:false
Technical feasibility
partial
Current read
Runnable path is not fully verified.
Evidence
No Build Passport payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Run minimal reproduction from the Build Passport prototype path.
Market urgency
missing
Current read
Buyer urgency is not verified from source.
Evidence
0 references, 3 sources, 50% evidence coverage.
Gaps
Next test
Collect buyer interview, deployment evidence, or cited demand signal.
Buyer clarity
missing
Current read
No budget owner is verified for this paper.
Evidence
Build tab has no CRM, procurement, or operator source.
Gaps
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Map target operator, economic buyer, and procurement trigger.
Defensibility
missing
Current read
Defensibility signals are missing.
Evidence
No defensibility receipt attached.
Gaps
Next test
Refresh defensibility bars with source receipts.
Integration burden
missing
Current read
No public implementation surface observed.
Evidence
No GitHub or Hugging Face payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Write integration checklist from prototype path and target workflow.
Capital intensity
missing
Current read
No observed cost estimate is verified.
Evidence
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Gaps
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Run cost passport or mark the cost field not applicable.
Regulatory load
missing
Current read
No regulatory classification is attached.
Evidence
Build Passport ledger does not include regulatory flags.
Gaps
Next test
Classify regulatory flags before commercialization planning.
No named scientific founder assigned.
Paper authors are not treated as operators without consent.
People
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Gaps
Next verification path
Prototype owner missing.
Build Passport does not name an implementer.
People
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Gaps
Next verification path
Operator workflow not sourced.
No buyer or workflow interview attached.
People
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Gaps
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People
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Gaps
Next verification path
Regulatory need unclassified.
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People
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Gaps
Next verification path
ARTIFACTS
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DEFENSIBILITY
Defensibility and confidence evidence pending.
WATCHTOWER
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FORESIGHT
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OPPORTUNITYKERNEL CHANGES SINCE LAST VIEW
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TIMELINE
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BUZZ
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