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ARXIV:2603.28360 · MULTI-LLM UNCERTAINTY · SUBMITTED 31 MAR · 20:23 UTC · FRESHNESS STALE
ARXIV:2603.28360MULTI-LLM UNCERTAINTYSUBMITTED 31 MAR · 20:23 UTCFRESHNESS STALEKangkang Sun · Jun Wu · Jianhua Li · Minyi Guo · Xiuzhen Che · Jianwei Huang · arXiv
A novel information-theoretic metric to quantify semantic disagreement and collaborative confidence across multiple Large Language Models.
Opportunity summary
Pain A novel information-theoretic metric to quantify semantic disagreement and collaborative confidence across multiple Large Language Models.
Evidence 14 refs | 3 sources | 50% coverage
Blocker Evidence unverified
A novel information-theoretic metric to quantify semantic disagreement and collaborative confidence across multiple Large Language Models. To address this gap, we propose Collaborative Entropy (CoE), a unified information-theoretic metric for semantic uncertainty in multi-LLM…
Uncertainty estimation in multi-LLM systems remains largely single-model-centric: existing methods quantify uncertainty within each model but do not adequately capture semantic disagreement across models. To address this gap, we propose Collaborative Entropy (CoE), a…
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. These results clarify when reducing per-model uncertainty is sufficient and when residual inter-model disagreement remains.
Multi-LLM Uncertainty moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10.
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A novel information-theoretic metric to quantify semantic disagreement and collaborative confidence across multiple Large Language Models.
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10.48550/arXiv.2603.28360A novel information-theoretic metric to quantify semantic disagreement and collaborative confidence across multiple Large Language Models.
Abstract
Uncertainty estimation in multi-LLM systems remains largely single-model-centric: existing methods quantify uncertainty within each model but do not adequately capture semantic disagreement across models. To address this gap, we propose Collaborative Entropy (CoE), a unified information-theoretic metric for semantic uncertainty in multi-LLM collaboration. CoE is defined on a shared semantic cluster space and combines two components: intra-model semantic entropy and inter-model divergence to the ensemble mean. CoE is not a weighted ensemble predictor; it is a system-level uncertainty measure that characterizes collaborative confidence and disagreement. We analyze several core properties of CoE, including non-negativity, zero-value certainty under perfect semantic consensus, and the behavior of CoE when individual models collapse to delta distributions. These results clarify when reducing per-model uncertainty is sufficient and when residual inter-model disagreement remains. We also present a simple CoE-guided, training-free post-hoc coordination heuristic as a practical application of the metric. Experiments on \textit{TriviaQA} and \textit{SQuAD} with LLaMA-3.1-8B-Instruct, Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct, and Mistral-7B-Instruct show that CoE provides stronger uncertainty estimation than standard entropy- and divergence-based baselines, with gains becoming larger as additional heterogeneous models are introduced. Overall, CoE offers a useful uncertainty-aware perspective on multi-LLM collaboration.
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unverified14 refs; 3 sources; 50% coverage.
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PROBLEM
A novel information-theoretic metric to quantify semantic disagreement and collaborative confidence across multiple Large Language Models. To address this gap, we propose Collaborative Entropy (CoE), a unified information-theoretic metric for semantic uncertainty in multi-LLM co...
METHOD
Uncertainty estimation in multi-LLM systems remains largely single-model-centric: existing methods quantify uncertainty within each model but do not adequately capture semantic disagreement across models. To address this gap, we propose Collaborative Entropy (CoE), a unified inf...
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. These results clarify when reducing per-model uncertainty is sufficient and when residual inter-model disagreement remains.
WHY NOW
Multi-LLM Uncertainty moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10.
To address this gap, we propose Collaborative Entropy (CoE), a unified information-theoretic metric for semantic uncertainty in multi-LLM collaboration. CoE is defined on a shared semantic cluster space and combines two components: intra-model semantic entropy and inter-model divergence to the ensemble mean.
Explicitly defined in the abstract and detailed in the method section with a formal equation.
partial
Experiments on \textit{TriviaQA} and \textit{SQuAD} with LLaMA-3.1-8B-Instruct, Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct, and Mistral-7B-Instruct show that CoE provides stronger uncertainty estimation than standard entropy- and divergence-based baselines.
Directly stated in the abstract as an experimental result with specific datasets named.
partial
with gains becoming larger as additional heterogeneous models are introduced.
Explicitly stated in the abstract as a finding from experiments.
partial
Crucially, CoE isnota weighted ensemble predictor or an output-scoring rule: it is a system-level uncertainty measure that characterizes collaborative confidence and cross-model semantic disagreement, independently of any downstream task objective.
Explicitly and repeatedly stated in the abstract and method sections.
partial
existing methods quantify uncertainty within each model but do not adequately capture semantic disagreement across models.
Directly stated as the core problem and motivation in the abstract.
partial
However, as a single-model metric, SE cannot capture the disagreement that arises whenmultipleheterogeneous models each have low internal entropy yet commit todifferentsemantic clusters.
Explicitly stated as a limitation of the baseline method, forming the central motivation for CoE.
partial
We analyze several core properties of CoE, including non-negativity, zero-value certainty under perfect semantic consensus, and the behavior of CoE when individual models collapse to delta distributions.
Stated in the abstract as an analyzed core property, with theoretical analysis referenced.
partial
where D(·∥·) is a distributional divergence. In our primary formulation we use the asymmetric KL divergence, DKL(pi∥¯p) =Pl j=1 pi(cj |x) log pi(cj |x) ¯p(cj |x) , whose reference-directed asymmetry is critical for capturing directional epistemic disagreement.
Directly stated in the method section explaining the formulation choice.
partial
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A novel information-theoretic metric to quantify semantic disagreement and collaborative confidence across multiple Large Language Models.
Segment
Multi-LLM Uncertainty
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