Bayesian Elicitation with LLMs: Model Size Helps, Extra "Reasoning" Doesn't Always

Bayesian Elicitation with LLMs: Model Size Helps, Extra "Reasoning" Doesn't Always explores This research investigates the accuracy and uncertainty estimation of LLMs for Bayesian elicitation, finding that model size is key but reasoning effort is not, and that statistical correction is needed for reliable decision-making.. Commercial viability score: 4/10 in LLM Uncertainty Quantification.