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ARXIV:2603.26644 · BAYESIAN INFERENCE · SUBMITTED 30 MAR · 22:29 UTC · FRESHNESS STALE
ARXIV:2603.26644BAYESIAN INFERENCESUBMITTED 30 MAR · 22:29 UTCFRESHNESS STALEToby Lovick · David Yallup · Will Handley · arXiv
A framework for scalable Bayesian inference using automatic differentiation to efficiently marginalize latent parameters in complex models.
Opportunity summary
Pain A framework for scalable Bayesian inference using automatic differentiation to efficiently marginalize latent parameters in complex models.
Evidence 15 refs | 3 sources | 50% coverage
Blocker Evidence unverified
A framework for scalable Bayesian inference using automatic differentiation to efficiently marginalize latent parameters in complex models. At each nested sampling likelihood evaluation, ALCS collapses the high-dimensional latent variables $z$ to a scalar contribution…
We present Automatic Laplace Collapsed Sampling (ALCS), a general framework for marginalising latent parameters in Bayesian models using automatic differentiation, which we combine with nested sampling to explore the hyperparameter space in a robust…
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. We also show that automatic differentiation enables local approximations beyond Laplace to parametric families such as the Student-$t$, which improves evidence estimates for heavy-tailed…
Bayesian Inference moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
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A framework for scalable Bayesian inference using automatic differentiation to efficiently marginalize latent parameters in complex models.
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10.48550/arXiv.2603.26644A framework for scalable Bayesian inference using automatic differentiation to efficiently marginalize latent parameters in complex models.
Abstract
We present Automatic Laplace Collapsed Sampling (ALCS), a general framework for marginalising latent parameters in Bayesian models using automatic differentiation, which we combine with nested sampling to explore the hyperparameter space in a robust and efficient manner. At each nested sampling likelihood evaluation, ALCS collapses the high-dimensional latent variables $z$ to a scalar contribution via maximum a posteriori (MAP) optimisation and a Laplace approximation, both computed using autodiff. This reduces the effective dimension from $d_θ+ d_z$ to just $d_θ$, making Bayesian evidence computation tractable for high-dimensional settings without hand-derived gradients or Hessians, and with minimal model-specific engineering. The MAP optimisation and Hessian evaluation are parallelised across live points on GPU-hardware, making the method practical at scale. We also show that automatic differentiation enables local approximations beyond Laplace to parametric families such as the Student-$t$, which improves evidence estimates for heavy-tailed latents. We validate ALCS on a suite of benchmarks spanning hierarchical, time-series, and discrete-likelihood models and establish where the Gaussian approximation holds. This enables a post-hoc ESS diagnostic that localises failures across hyperparameter space without expensive joint sampling.
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Proof status
unverified15 refs; 3 sources; 50% coverage.
What was readable
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PROBLEM
A framework for scalable Bayesian inference using automatic differentiation to efficiently marginalize latent parameters in complex models. At each nested sampling likelihood evaluation, ALCS collapses the high-dimensional latent variables $z$ to a scalar contribution via maximu...
METHOD
We present Automatic Laplace Collapsed Sampling (ALCS), a general framework for marginalising latent parameters in Bayesian models using automatic differentiation, which we combine with nested sampling to explore the hyperparameter space in a robust and efficient manner. At each...
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. We also show that automatic differentiation enables local approximations beyond Laplace to parametric families such as the Student-$t$, which improves evidence estimates for heavy-tailed latents. Code ava...
WHY NOW
Bayesian Inference moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
We present Automatic Laplace Collapsed Sampling (ALCS), a general framework for marginalising latent parameters in Bayesian models using automatic differentiation
This is the core definition of ALCS provided in the abstract and introduction.
partial
This reduces the effective dimension from d_θ+ d_z to just d_θ, making Bayesian evidence computation tractable for high-dimensional settings
The abstract explicitly states this dimensionality reduction and the mechanism by which it is achieved.
partial
The MAP optimisation and Hessian evaluation are parallelised across live points on GPU-hardware, making the method practical at scale.
The abstract mentions parallelization on GPUs as a key enabler for scalability.
partial
We also show that automatic differentiation enables local approximations beyond Laplace to parametric families such as the Student-t, which improves evidence estimates for heavy-tailed latents.
The abstract explicitly states that autodiff enables approximations beyond Laplace and mentions the Student-t distribution as an example for heavy-tailed latents.
partial
which we combine with nested sampling to explore the hyperparameter space in a robust and efficient manner.
This combination is stated as a core aspect of the ALCS framework in the abstract.
partial
This scales asO(d^3_θ ×d z), which ford θ ≪d z represents a substantial improvement over theO((d θ +d z)3)cost of joint nested sampling.
The paper explicitly states the computational scaling for ALCS and compares it to full nested sampling.
partial
ALCS is designed for near-Gaussian latent spaces, and as such we are primarily targeting quadratic surfaces. Although optimisation in such spaces scales well [Liu and Nocedal, 1989, Zhang et al., 2022], it breaks down in anisotropic spaces
The analysis section discusses the design intent and limitations regarding latent space geometry.
partial
a hierarchical supernova model (demonstrating exact-Gaussian accuracy andD= 25,600scaling)
The experiments section mentions a hierarchical supernova model demonstrating exact-Gaussian accuracy and scaling to 25,600 dimensions.
partial
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A framework for scalable Bayesian inference using automatic differentiation to efficiently marginalize latent parameters in complex models.
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Bayesian Inference
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Commercial read
4.0/10 public viability
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missing
reason
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proof status
unverified
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confidence low
next verification path
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Evidence coverage
OpportunityKernel evidence_receipt
15 refs / 3 sources / 50% coverage
stale
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Build readiness
BuildPassport EvidenceState
passport absent
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Artifact maturity
GitHub and Hugging Face maturity payloads
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Technical feasibility
partial
Current read
Runnable path is not fully verified.
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Gaps
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Run minimal reproduction from the Build Passport prototype path.
Market urgency
partial
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Research evidence exists; buyer urgency still needs source proof.
Evidence
15 references, 3 sources, 50% evidence coverage.
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Buyer clarity
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Integration burden
missing
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No public implementation surface observed.
Evidence
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Write integration checklist from prototype path and target workflow.
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Evidence
Build Passport ledger does not include regulatory flags.
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Classify regulatory flags before commercialization planning.
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Paper authors are not treated as operators without consent.
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Regulatory need unclassified.
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ARTIFACTS
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DEFENSIBILITY
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