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• A decision-theory framework is introduced for designing useful forecasts where the forecaster cannot prescribe optimal actions due to farmer heterogeneity.method 95%
• The system blends AI weather prediction models with a new 'evolving farmer expectations' statistical model.method 95%
• The statistical model uses Bayesian inference to predict time-varying probabilities of first-occurrence events throughout a season.technical 90%
• The blended system produces more skillful Indian monsoon forecasts at longer lead times than its components or any multi-model average.result 90%
• In 2025, the system was deployed operationally in a government-led program, reaching 38 million Indian farmers.market 95%
• The system skillfully predicted the early-summer anomalous dry period in 2025.result 85%
• The model's success depends on accurate and updated historical weather data.limitation 80%

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