self-resolving play-money prediction market

Gold definitionUpdated Apr 2, 2026

Definition

A self-resolving play-money prediction market is a mechanism where participants trade with play money on a hypothesis, simultaneously sharing private information in a chat. It aggregates diverse expert knowledge efficiently and interpretably, even without a known ground truth, by reaching an equilibrium where trading reflects the hypothesis's truth.

At a glance

Executive summary

This system uses a fake-money prediction market combined with a chat to get experts to share their knowledge about complex problems. It helps gather diverse opinions efficiently and clearly, even when nobody knows the exact right answer, by having the market reflect the collective truth.

TL;DR

It's a system where experts use play money to bet on a problem's solution and chat about it, helping everyone figure out the best answer together, even if there's no clear right or wrong.

Key points

Integrates a play-money prediction market with a chat to incentivize information sharing and truth-reflecting trading.
Solves the problem of aggregating diverse, private expert information for complex problems where ground truth is unknown and experts are disconnected.
Used by online groups of mutually unrelated experts, researchers in collaborative scientific studies, and organizations seeking collective intelligence.
Unlike traditional surveys or direct expert consensus methods, it leverages market dynamics and play-money incentives to reveal information and reach an equilibrium without complex Bayesian calculations.
Represents a research trend in novel mechanisms for collective intelligence, decentralized science (DeSci), and incentivized information elicitation beyond traditional polling.

Use cases

Scientific Hypothesis Validation: Assessing the collective confidence in a new, complex scientific theory among a global network of researchers before costly experiments.
Technology Forecasting: Predicting the future success or failure of emerging technologies (e.g., specific AI approaches, new energy solutions) by aggregating insights from industry experts.
Policy Analysis: Gathering expert consensus on the potential outcomes or effectiveness of proposed public policies, especially when data is scarce or conflicting.
Open-Ended Problem Solving: Facilitating collaborative problem-solving for grand challenges in fields like climate change or disease research, where diverse perspectives are crucial.

Also known as

Play-money market with chat, Self-resolving market, Incentivized collective intelligence market