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ARXIV:2604.15719 · AGENTS · SUBMITTED 20 APR · 20:24 UTC · FRESHNESS STALE
ARXIV:2604.15719AGENTSSUBMITTED 20 APR · 20:24 UTCFRESHNESS STALEChuyang Wei · Maohang Gao · Zhixin Han · Kefei Chen · Yu Zhuang · Haoxiang Guan · +8 at arXiv
A self-evolving agent system that uses internal feedback to improve future predictions before outcomes are known.
Opportunity summary
Pain A self-evolving agent system that uses internal feedback to improve future predictions before outcomes are known.
Evidence 0 refs | 3 sources | 50% coverage
Blocker Evidence unverified
A self-evolving agent system that uses internal feedback to improve future predictions before outcomes are known. Such problems are commonly framed as \emph{future prediction}, where an LLM agent must form a prediction for an…
Many consequential decisions must be made before the relevant outcome is known. Such problems are commonly framed as \emph{future prediction}, where an LLM agent must form a prediction for an unresolved question using only…
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. The setting is difficult because public evidence evolves while useful supervision arrives only after the question is resolved, so most existing approaches still improve…
Agents moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10.
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mobile layout uses overflow-hidden min-w-0 break-wordsOpportunity summary
Score4.0Public score shown from the verified overall while the stale axis breakdown refreshesAnalysis summary
A self-evolving agent system that uses internal feedback to improve future predictions before outcomes are known.
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Paper Pack
10.48550/arXiv.2604.15719A self-evolving agent system that uses internal feedback to improve future predictions before outcomes are known.
Abstract
Many consequential decisions must be made before the relevant outcome is known. Such problems are commonly framed as \emph{future prediction}, where an LLM agent must form a prediction for an unresolved question using only the public information available at the prediction time. The setting is difficult because public evidence evolves while useful supervision arrives only after the question is resolved, so most existing approaches still improve mainly from final outcomes. Yet final outcomes are too coarse to guide earlier factor tracking, evidence gathering and interpretation, or uncertainty handling. When the same unresolved question is revisited over time, temporal contrasts between earlier and later predictions can expose omissions in the earlier prediction process; we call this signal \emph{internal feedback}. We introduce \emph{Milkyway}, a self-evolving agent system that keeps the base model fixed and instead updates a persistent \emph{future prediction harness} for factor tracking, evidence gathering and interpretation, and uncertainty handling. Across repeated predictions on the same unresolved question, \emph{Milkyway} extracts internal feedback and writes reusable guidance back into the harness, so later predictions on that question can improve before the outcome is known. After the question is resolved, the final outcome provides a \emph{retrospective check} before the updated harness is carried forward to subsequent questions. On FutureX and FutureWorld, Milkyway achieves the best overall score among the compared methods, improving FutureX from 44.07 to 60.90 and FutureWorld from 62.22 to 77.96.
Source availability
PDF linkedThe paper record includes a public PDF URL.
Extraction status
Parse run linkedA document parse run is attached to this paper.
Proof status
unverified0 refs; 3 sources; 50% coverage.
What was readable
Derived fallback: Estimated from adjacent evidence; not verified from source.
Viability
Time to MVP
Commercial
Export
Preparing verified analysis
Dimensions overall score 4.0
PROBLEM
A self-evolving agent system that uses internal feedback to improve future predictions before outcomes are known. Such problems are commonly framed as \emph{future prediction}, where an LLM agent must form a prediction for an unresolved question using only the public information...
METHOD
Many consequential decisions must be made before the relevant outcome is known. Such problems are commonly framed as \emph{future prediction}, where an LLM agent must form a prediction for an unresolved question using only the public information available at the prediction time.
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. The setting is difficult because public evidence evolves while useful supervision arrives only after the question is resolved, so most existing approaches still improve mainly from final outcomes.
WHY NOW
Agents moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10.
Abstract-backed public claims while anchored extraction refreshes.
A self-evolving agent system that uses internal feedback to improve future predictions before outcomes are known. Such problems are commonly framed as \emph{future prediction}, where an LLM agent must form a prediction for an unresolved question using only the public information available at the prediction time.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Many consequential decisions must be made before the relevant outcome is known. Such problems are commonly framed as \emph{future prediction}, where an LLM agent must form a prediction for an unresolved question using only the public information available at the prediction time.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 4.0/10 on the public viability pass. The setting is difficult because public evidence evolves while useful supervision arrives only after the question is resolved, so most existing approaches still improve mainly from final outcomes.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Agents moved forward this cycle; last verified April 2026. Public score 4.0/10.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
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Concepts
Methods
Materials
Markets
Competitors
A self-evolving agent system that uses internal feedback to improve future predictions before outcomes are known.
Segment
Agents
Adoption evidence
No public code link in the paper record yet
Commercial read
4.0/10 public viability
Direct
Adjacent
Substitute
Unknown
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Hacker News
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Bluesky
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Reference metadata is not materialized in the public index yet. The source PDF remains the authority; cache refresh is optional.
CITED BY
No citing papers are indexed in the public S2S graph yet. This is an explicit zero-signal state, not a hidden lookup.
Foundation
Extension
Commercially relevant
Conflicting
Owned Distribution
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2/3 checks · 67%
Build Passport
Build passport pending - Proof Lab budget No verified cost estimate / $7.00 cap
status
missing
reason
passport_row_missing
proof status
unverified
cost/budget
No verified cost estimate
confidence low
next verification path
Build brief missing until Build Passport data exists.
Source missing: Build Passport payload.
Experiment plan missing until prototype path is available.
No prototype path attached.
Validation checklist missing until required assets, cost, and regulatory flags are verified.
No checklist artifact is attached to the Build Passport payload.
Derived signals show verified:false until source-backed receipts exist.
Evidence coverage
OpportunityKernel evidence_receipt
0 refs / 3 sources / 50% coverage
stale
Verify missing sources before using this as buyer proof. verified:false
Build readiness
BuildPassport EvidenceState
passport absent
stale
Run Proof Lab or inspect typed missing state. verified:false
Artifact maturity
GitHub and Hugging Face maturity payloads
No public artifact surface observed
stale
Open source artifacts or mark the gap as missing. verified:false
Technical feasibility
partial
Current read
Runnable path is not fully verified.
Evidence
No Build Passport payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Run minimal reproduction from the Build Passport prototype path.
Market urgency
missing
Current read
Buyer urgency is not verified from source.
Evidence
0 references, 3 sources, 50% evidence coverage.
Gaps
Next test
Collect buyer interview, deployment evidence, or cited demand signal.
Buyer clarity
missing
Current read
No budget owner is verified for this paper.
Evidence
Build tab has no CRM, procurement, or operator source.
Gaps
Next test
Map target operator, economic buyer, and procurement trigger.
Defensibility
missing
Current read
Defensibility signals are missing.
Evidence
No defensibility receipt attached.
Gaps
Next test
Refresh defensibility bars with source receipts.
Integration burden
missing
Current read
No public implementation surface observed.
Evidence
No GitHub or Hugging Face payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Write integration checklist from prototype path and target workflow.
Capital intensity
missing
Current read
No observed cost estimate is verified.
Evidence
Cost passport has no observed_usd value.
Gaps
Next test
Run cost passport or mark the cost field not applicable.
Regulatory load
missing
Current read
No regulatory classification is attached.
Evidence
Build Passport ledger does not include regulatory flags.
Gaps
Next test
Classify regulatory flags before commercialization planning.
No named scientific founder assigned.
Paper authors are not treated as operators without consent.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Prototype owner missing.
Build Passport does not name an implementer.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Operator workflow not sourced.
No buyer or workflow interview attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
No GTM owner verified.
No CRM or outreach source attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Regulatory need unclassified.
No clinical or regulatory source attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
ARTIFACTS
No public artifacts yet.
DEFENSIBILITY
Defensibility and confidence evidence pending.
WATCHTOWER
No verified watchtower monitor rows yet.
FORESIGHT
No prediction yet — minted on next Foresight batch.
OPPORTUNITYKERNEL CHANGES SINCE LAST VIEW
No verified OpportunityKernel changes since the last view.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE UPDATES
No verified competitive landscape changes yet.
RELATED PAPER UPDATES
No verified related paper changes yet.
SIGNAL CANVAS HISTORY AND DELTAS
No Signal Canvas history deltas yet.
TIMELINE
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Score trend will appear after multiple data points.
BUZZ
Buzz trend pending.