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ARXIV:2605.20520 · AGENTS · SUBMITTED 21 MAY · 20:30 UTC · FRESHNESS STALE
ARXIV:2605.20520AGENTSSUBMITTED 21 MAY · 20:30 UTCFRESHNESS STALESayash Kapoor · Peter Kirgis · Andrew Schwartz · Stephan Rabanser · J. J. Allaire · Rishi Bommasani · +12 at arXiv
A project for conducting long-horizon, messy, real-world AI evaluations to provide early warnings of emerging capabilities.
Opportunity summary
Pain A project for conducting long-horizon, messy, real-world AI evaluations to provide early warnings of emerging capabilities.
Evidence 0 refs | 3 sources | 50% coverage
Blocker Evidence unverified
A project for conducting long-horizon, messy, real-world AI evaluations to provide early warnings of emerging capabilities. But it can both overstate and understate deployed capability because it privileges tasks that can be precisely specified,…
Benchmark-based evaluation remains important for tracking frontier AI progress. But it can both overstate and understate deployed capability because it privileges tasks that can be precisely specified, automatically graded, easy to optimize for, and…
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 7.0/10 on the public viability pass. We conclude with recommendations for designing and reporting open-world evals. Code availability is flagged in the production record; the public repository link still needs…
Agents moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 7.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
Continue into Read for claims, analysis, references, and neighboring papers.
mobile layout uses overflow-hidden min-w-0 break-wordsOpportunity summary
Score7.0Public score shown from the verified overall while the stale axis breakdown refreshesAnalysis summary
A project for conducting long-horizon, messy, real-world AI evaluations to provide early warnings of emerging capabilities.
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Paper Pack
10.48550/arXiv.2605.20520A project for conducting long-horizon, messy, real-world AI evaluations to provide early warnings of emerging capabilities.
Abstract
Benchmark-based evaluation remains important for tracking frontier AI progress. But it can both overstate and understate deployed capability because it privileges tasks that can be precisely specified, automatically graded, easy to optimize for, and run with low budgets and short time horizons. We advocate for a complementary class of evaluations, which we term open-world evaluations: long-horizon, messy, real-world tasks assessed through small-sample qualitative analysis rather than benchmark-scale automation. In this paper we survey recent open-world evaluations, identify their strengths and limitations, and introduce CRUX (Collaborative Research for Updating AI eXpectations), a project for conducting such evaluations regularly. As a first instance, we task an AI agent with developing and publishing a simple iOS application to the Apple App Store. The agent completed the task with only a single avoidable manual intervention, suggesting that open-world evaluations can provide early warning of capabilities that may soon become widespread. We conclude with recommendations for designing and reporting open-world evals.
Source availability
PDF linkedThe paper record includes a public PDF URL.
Extraction status
Parse run pending anchorsA parse run id is attached, but no public source anchors are materialized yet.
Proof status
unverified0 refs; 3 sources; 50% coverage.
What was readable
Derived fallback: Estimated from adjacent evidence; not verified from source.
Viability
Time to MVP
Commercial
Export
Preparing verified analysis
Dimensions overall score 7.0
PROBLEM
A project for conducting long-horizon, messy, real-world AI evaluations to provide early warnings of emerging capabilities. But it can both overstate and understate deployed capability because it privileges tasks that can be precisely specified, automatically graded, easy to opt...
METHOD
Benchmark-based evaluation remains important for tracking frontier AI progress. But it can both overstate and understate deployed capability because it privileges tasks that can be precisely specified, automatically graded, easy to optimize for, and run with low budgets and shor...
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 7.0/10 on the public viability pass. We conclude with recommendations for designing and reporting open-world evals. Code availability is flagged in the production record; the public repository link still needs proof alignment.
WHY NOW
Agents moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 7.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
Abstract-backed public claims while anchored extraction refreshes.
A project for conducting long-horizon, messy, real-world AI evaluations to provide early warnings of emerging capabilities. But it can both overstate and understate deployed capability because it privileges tasks that can be precisely specified, automatically graded, easy to optimize for, and run with low budgets and short time horizons.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Benchmark-based evaluation remains important for tracking frontier AI progress. But it can both overstate and understate deployed capability because it privileges tasks that can be precisely specified, automatically graded, easy to optimize for, and run with low budgets and short time horizons.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 7.0/10 on the public viability pass. We conclude with recommendations for designing and reporting open-world evals. Code availability is flagged in the production record; the public repository link still needs proof alignment.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Agents moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 7.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Paper-native neighborhood for concepts, methods, materials, markets, and competitors. Missing lanes stay labeled instead of disappearing behind commercialization gates.
Concepts
Methods
Materials
Markets
Competitors
A project for conducting long-horizon, messy, real-world AI evaluations to provide early warnings of emerging capabilities.
Segment
Agents
Adoption evidence
No public code link in the paper record yet
Commercial read
7.0/10 public viability
Direct
Adjacent
Substitute
Unknown
No indexed public discussion is attached to 2605.20520 yet. That is a visibility signal, not a blank module: the monitor is watching the public channels below.
Hacker News
Not indexed yet
Not indexed yet
Bluesky
Not indexed yet
Preview the source document here, or use the hero PDF action for a new tab.
Reference metadata is not materialized in the public index yet. The source PDF remains the authority; cache refresh is optional.
CITED BY
No citing papers are indexed in the public S2S graph yet. This is an explicit zero-signal state, not a hidden lookup.
Foundation
Extension
Commercially relevant
Conflicting
Owned Distribution
Get the weekly shortlist of commercializable papers, benchmark movers, and proof receipts that matter for product execution.
2/3 checks · 67%
Build Passport
Build passport pending - Proof Lab budget No verified cost estimate / $7.00 cap
status
missing
reason
passport_row_missing
proof status
unverified
cost/budget
No verified cost estimate
confidence low
next verification path
Build brief missing until Build Passport data exists.
Source missing: Build Passport payload.
Experiment plan missing until prototype path is available.
No prototype path attached.
Validation checklist missing until required assets, cost, and regulatory flags are verified.
No checklist artifact is attached to the Build Passport payload.
Derived signals show verified:false until source-backed receipts exist.
Evidence coverage
OpportunityKernel evidence_receipt
0 refs / 3 sources / 50% coverage
stale
Verify missing sources before using this as buyer proof. verified:false
Build readiness
BuildPassport EvidenceState
passport absent
stale
Run Proof Lab or inspect typed missing state. verified:false
Artifact maturity
GitHub and Hugging Face maturity payloads
No public artifact surface observed
stale
Open source artifacts or mark the gap as missing. verified:false
Technical feasibility
partial
Current read
Runnable path is not fully verified.
Evidence
No Build Passport payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Run minimal reproduction from the Build Passport prototype path.
Market urgency
missing
Current read
Buyer urgency is not verified from source.
Evidence
0 references, 3 sources, 50% evidence coverage.
Gaps
Next test
Collect buyer interview, deployment evidence, or cited demand signal.
Buyer clarity
missing
Current read
No budget owner is verified for this paper.
Evidence
Build tab has no CRM, procurement, or operator source.
Gaps
Next test
Map target operator, economic buyer, and procurement trigger.
Defensibility
missing
Current read
Defensibility signals are missing.
Evidence
No defensibility receipt attached.
Gaps
Next test
Refresh defensibility bars with source receipts.
Integration burden
missing
Current read
No public implementation surface observed.
Evidence
No GitHub or Hugging Face payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Write integration checklist from prototype path and target workflow.
Capital intensity
missing
Current read
No observed cost estimate is verified.
Evidence
Cost passport has no observed_usd value.
Gaps
Next test
Run cost passport or mark the cost field not applicable.
Regulatory load
missing
Current read
No regulatory classification is attached.
Evidence
Build Passport ledger does not include regulatory flags.
Gaps
Next test
Classify regulatory flags before commercialization planning.
No named scientific founder assigned.
Paper authors are not treated as operators without consent.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Prototype owner missing.
Build Passport does not name an implementer.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Operator workflow not sourced.
No buyer or workflow interview attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
No GTM owner verified.
No CRM or outreach source attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Regulatory need unclassified.
No clinical or regulatory source attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
ARTIFACTS
No public artifacts yet.
DEFENSIBILITY
Defensibility and confidence evidence pending.
WATCHTOWER
No verified watchtower monitor rows yet.
FORESIGHT
No prediction yet — minted on next Foresight batch.
OPPORTUNITYKERNEL CHANGES SINCE LAST VIEW
No verified OpportunityKernel changes since the last view.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE UPDATES
No verified competitive landscape changes yet.
RELATED PAPER UPDATES
No verified related paper changes yet.
SIGNAL CANVAS HISTORY AND DELTAS
No Signal Canvas history deltas yet.
TIMELINE
Save this paper to start tracking momentum - commits, demos, and score changes appear here.
No tracked events yet.
Score trend will appear after multiple data points.
BUZZ
Buzz trend pending.