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ARXIV:2605.12646 · AI-ASSISTED DECISION MAKING · SUBMITTED 14 MAY · 20:10 UTC · FRESHNESS FRESH
ARXIV:2605.12646AI-ASSISTED DECISION MAKINGSUBMITTED 14 MAY · 20:10 UTCFRESHNESS FRESHNina Corvelo Benz · Eleni Straitouri · Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez · arXiv
This paper analyzes the impact of AI confidence alignment with human confidence on the complexity of learning optimal decisions in AI-assisted scenarios.
Opportunity summary
Pain This paper analyzes the impact of AI confidence alignment with human confidence on the complexity of learning optimal decisions in AI-assisted scenarios.
Evidence 0 refs | 0 sources | 0% coverage
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This paper analyzes the impact of AI confidence alignment with human confidence on the complexity of learning optimal decisions in AI-assisted scenarios. However, empirical evidence suggests that decision-makers often struggle to determine when to…
It is widely agreed that when AI models assist decision-makers in high-stakes domains by predicting an outcome of interest, they should communicate the confidence of their predictions. However, empirical evidence suggests that decision-makers often…
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 3.0/10 on the public viability pass. We first show that this problem is equivalent to a two-armed online contextual learning problem with full feedback, and establish a lower bound of…
AI-Assisted Decision Making moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 3.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
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This paper analyzes the impact of AI confidence alignment with human confidence on the complexity of learning optimal decisions in AI-assisted scenarios.
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10.48550/arXiv.2605.12646This paper analyzes the impact of AI confidence alignment with human confidence on the complexity of learning optimal decisions in AI-assisted scenarios.
Abstract
It is widely agreed that when AI models assist decision-makers in high-stakes domains by predicting an outcome of interest, they should communicate the confidence of their predictions. However, empirical evidence suggests that decision-makers often struggle to determine when to trust a prediction based solely on this communicated confidence. In this context, recent theoretical and empirical work suggests a positive correlation between the utility of AI-assisted decision-making and the degree of alignment between the AI confidence and the decision-makers' confidence in their own predictions. Crucially, these findings do not yet elucidate the extent to which this alignment influences the complexity of learning to make optimal decisions through repeated interactions. In this paper, we address this question in the canonical case of binary predictions and binary decisions. We first show that this problem is equivalent to a two-armed online contextual learning problem with full feedback, and establish a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{|H| \cdot |B| \cdot T} )$ on the expected regret any learner can attain, where $H$ and $B$ denote the sets of human and AI confidence values. We then demonstrate that, under perfect alignment between AI and human confidence, a learner can attain an expected regret of $O(\sqrt{|H| \cdot T\log T})$ and, when $\sqrt{|H|} = O(\log T)$ and $B$ is countable, a non-trivial generalization of the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality improves the regret bound to $O(\sqrt{T\log T})$. Taken together, these results reveal that alignment can reduce the complexity of learning to make decisions with AI assistance. Experiments on real data from two different human-subject studies where participants solve simple decision-making tasks assisted by AI models show that our theoretical results are robust to violations of perfect alignment.
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PROBLEM
This paper analyzes the impact of AI confidence alignment with human confidence on the complexity of learning optimal decisions in AI-assisted scenarios. However, empirical evidence suggests that decision-makers often struggle to determine when to trust a prediction based solely...
METHOD
It is widely agreed that when AI models assist decision-makers in high-stakes domains by predicting an outcome of interest, they should communicate the confidence of their predictions. However, empirical evidence suggests that decision-makers often struggle to determine when to...
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 3.0/10 on the public viability pass. We first show that this problem is equivalent to a two-armed online contextual learning problem with full feedback, and establish a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{|H| \cdot |B| \cdot T} )$ on the expected regret...
WHY NOW
AI-Assisted Decision Making moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 3.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
Abstract-backed public claims while anchored extraction refreshes.
This paper analyzes the impact of AI confidence alignment with human confidence on the complexity of learning optimal decisions in AI-assisted scenarios. However, empirical evidence suggests that decision-makers often struggle to determine when to trust a prediction based solely on this communicated confidence.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
It is widely agreed that when AI models assist decision-makers in high-stakes domains by predicting an outcome of interest, they should communicate the confidence of their predictions. However, empirical evidence suggests that decision-makers often struggle to determine when to trust a prediction based solely on this communicated confidence.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 3.0/10 on the public viability pass. We first show that this problem is equivalent to a two-armed online contextual learning problem with full feedback, and establish a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{|H| \cdot |B| \cdot T} )$ on the expected regret any learner can attain, where $H$ and $B$ denote the sets of human and AI confidence values. Code availability is flagged in the production record; the public repository link still needs proof alignment.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
AI-Assisted Decision Making moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 3.0/10. Production flags indicate code availability.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
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This paper analyzes the impact of AI confidence alignment with human confidence on the complexity of learning optimal decisions in AI-assisted scenarios.
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