This canonical paper page includes Commercialization Proof and Related Resources.
ARXIV:2605.11404 · MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS · SUBMITTED 13 MAY · 20:19 UTC · FRESHNESS FRESH
ARXIV:2605.11404MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMSSUBMITTED 13 MAY · 20:19 UTCFRESHNESS FRESHLing Tang · Jilin Mei · Qian Chen · Qihan Ren · Linfeng Zhang · Quanshi Zhang · +3 at arXiv
A new method for attributing macro emergence in million-agent systems scales existing axiomatic approaches to handle large populations and reveals significant disagreements with small-scale studies.
Opportunity summary
Pain A new method for attributing macro emergence in million-agent systems scales existing axiomatic approaches to handle large populations and reveals significant disagreements with small-scale studies.
Evidence 0 refs | 0 sources | 0% coverage
Blocker Evidence unverified
A new method for attributing macro emergence in million-agent systems scales existing axiomatic approaches to handle large populations and reveals significant disagreements with small-scale studies. LLM-powered multi-agent systems (MAS) combine such agents to simulate…
Large language models (LLMs) can simulate human-like reasoning and decision-making in individual agents. LLM-powered multi-agent systems (MAS) combine such agents to simulate population-scale social phenomena such as polarization, information cascades, and market panics.
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 3.0/10 on the public viability pass. We then prove that under any nonlinear macro indicator the disagreement cannot be reduced by post-hoc rescaling: an Attribution Scaling Bias theorem shows that…
Multi-Agent Systems moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 3.0/10.
Continue into Read for claims, analysis, references, and neighboring papers.
mobile layout uses overflow-hidden min-w-0 break-wordsOpportunity summary
Score3.0Public score shown from the verified overall while the stale axis breakdown refreshesAnalysis summary
A new method for attributing macro emergence in million-agent systems scales existing axiomatic approaches to handle large populations and reveals significant disagreements with small-scale studies.
Loading BUILD…
Paper Pack
10.48550/arXiv.2605.11404A new method for attributing macro emergence in million-agent systems scales existing axiomatic approaches to handle large populations and reveals significant disagreements with small-scale studies.
Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) can simulate human-like reasoning and decision-making in individual agents. LLM-powered multi-agent systems (MAS) combine such agents to simulate population-scale social phenomena such as polarization, information cascades, and market panics. Such studies require attributing macro emergence to individual agents, but existing axiomatic methods scale combinatorially in $N$ and have been confined to $N \lesssim 10^3$, while the phenomena they explain occur at $N \geq 10^6$. We address this gap by adapting Aumann--Shapley path-integral attribution to LLM-powered MAS at million-agent scale; the resulting method satisfies all four axioms, runs four to five orders of magnitude faster than sampled Shapley on the same hardware. We use this method to test the scale gap empirically: across 14 days of public Bluesky data ($1{,}671{,}587$ active users), we compute the attribution at both full scale and the visibility-biased $N = 10^2$ convenience sample used by small-scale studies, and the two disagree structurally. At full scale the long tail and middle tier jointly carry the majority; the biased small panel attributes almost everything to a few high-follower accounts. We then prove that under any nonlinear macro indicator the disagreement cannot be reduced by post-hoc rescaling: an Attribution Scaling Bias theorem shows that no global rescaling factor can reconcile small-scale and full-scale attribution. Full-scale attribution is therefore not a methodological choice but a theoretical requirement for any nonlinear macro indicator.
Source availability
PDF linkedThe paper record includes a public PDF URL.
Extraction status
Parse run linkedA document parse run is attached to this paper.
Proof status
unverified0 refs; 0 sources; 0% coverage.
What was readable
Derived fallback: Estimated from adjacent evidence; not verified from source.
Viability
Time to MVP
Commercial
Export
Preparing verified analysis
Dimensions overall score 3.0
PROBLEM
A new method for attributing macro emergence in million-agent systems scales existing axiomatic approaches to handle large populations and reveals significant disagreements with small-scale studies. LLM-powered multi-agent systems (MAS) combine such agents to simulate population...
METHOD
Large language models (LLMs) can simulate human-like reasoning and decision-making in individual agents. LLM-powered multi-agent systems (MAS) combine such agents to simulate population-scale social phenomena such as polarization, information cascades, and market panics.
RESULT
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 3.0/10 on the public viability pass. We then prove that under any nonlinear macro indicator the disagreement cannot be reduced by post-hoc rescaling: an Attribution Scaling Bias theorem shows that no global rescaling factor can reconcile sma...
WHY NOW
Multi-Agent Systems moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 3.0/10.
Abstract-backed public claims while anchored extraction refreshes.
A new method for attributing macro emergence in million-agent systems scales existing axiomatic approaches to handle large populations and reveals significant disagreements with small-scale studies. LLM-powered multi-agent systems (MAS) combine such agents to simulate population-scale social phenomena such as polarization, information cascades, and market panics.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Large language models (LLMs) can simulate human-like reasoning and decision-making in individual agents. LLM-powered multi-agent systems (MAS) combine such agents to simulate population-scale social phenomena such as polarization, information cascades, and market panics.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
ScienceToStartup currently rates this 3.0/10 on the public viability pass. We then prove that under any nonlinear macro indicator the disagreement cannot be reduced by post-hoc rescaling: an Attribution Scaling Bias theorem shows that no global rescaling factor can reconcile small-scale and full-scale attribution.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Multi-Agent Systems moved forward this cycle; last verified May 2026. Public score 3.0/10.
Abstract-backed fallback claim; anchored extraction has not materialized a public claim row yet.
partial
Paper-native neighborhood for concepts, methods, materials, markets, and competitors. Missing lanes stay labeled instead of disappearing behind commercialization gates.
Concepts
Methods
Materials
Markets
Competitors
A new method for attributing macro emergence in million-agent systems scales existing axiomatic approaches to handle large populations and reveals significant disagreements with small-scale studies.
Segment
Multi-Agent Systems
Adoption evidence
No public code link in the paper record yet
Commercial read
3.0/10 public viability
Direct
Adjacent
Substitute
Unknown
No indexed public discussion is attached to 2605.11404 yet. That is a visibility signal, not a blank module: the monitor is watching the public channels below.
Hacker News
Not indexed yet
Not indexed yet
Bluesky
Not indexed yet
Preview the source document here, or use the hero PDF action for a new tab.
Reference metadata is not materialized in the public index yet. The source PDF remains the authority; cache refresh is optional.
CITED BY
No citing papers are indexed in the public S2S graph yet. This is an explicit zero-signal state, not a hidden lookup.
Commercially relevant
Conflicting
Owned Distribution
Get the weekly shortlist of commercializable papers, benchmark movers, and proof receipts that matter for product execution.
0/3 checks · 0%
Build Passport
Build passport pending - Proof Lab budget No verified cost estimate / $7.00 cap
status
missing
reason
passport_row_missing
proof status
unverified
cost/budget
No verified cost estimate
confidence low
next verification path
Build brief missing until Build Passport data exists.
Source missing: Build Passport payload.
Experiment plan missing until prototype path is available.
No prototype path attached.
Validation checklist missing until required assets, cost, and regulatory flags are verified.
No checklist artifact is attached to the Build Passport payload.
Derived signals show verified:false until source-backed receipts exist.
Evidence coverage
OpportunityKernel evidence_receipt
0 refs / 0 sources / 0% coverage
fresh
Verify missing sources before using this as buyer proof. verified:false
Build readiness
BuildPassport EvidenceState
passport absent
fresh
Run Proof Lab or inspect typed missing state. verified:false
Artifact maturity
GitHub and Hugging Face maturity payloads
No public artifact surface observed
fresh
Open source artifacts or mark the gap as missing. verified:false
Technical feasibility
partial
Current read
Runnable path is not fully verified.
Evidence
No Build Passport payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Run minimal reproduction from the Build Passport prototype path.
Market urgency
missing
Current read
Buyer urgency is not verified from source.
Evidence
0 references, 0 sources, 0% evidence coverage.
Gaps
Next test
Collect buyer interview, deployment evidence, or cited demand signal.
Buyer clarity
missing
Current read
No budget owner is verified for this paper.
Evidence
Build tab has no CRM, procurement, or operator source.
Gaps
Next test
Map target operator, economic buyer, and procurement trigger.
Defensibility
missing
Current read
Defensibility signals are missing.
Evidence
No defensibility receipt attached.
Gaps
Next test
Refresh defensibility bars with source receipts.
Integration burden
missing
Current read
No public implementation surface observed.
Evidence
No GitHub or Hugging Face payload attached.
Gaps
Next test
Write integration checklist from prototype path and target workflow.
Capital intensity
missing
Current read
No observed cost estimate is verified.
Evidence
Cost passport has no observed_usd value.
Gaps
Next test
Run cost passport or mark the cost field not applicable.
Regulatory load
missing
Current read
No regulatory classification is attached.
Evidence
Build Passport ledger does not include regulatory flags.
Gaps
Next test
Classify regulatory flags before commercialization planning.
No named scientific founder assigned.
Paper authors are not treated as operators without consent.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Prototype owner missing.
Build Passport does not name an implementer.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Operator workflow not sourced.
No buyer or workflow interview attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
No GTM owner verified.
No CRM or outreach source attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
Regulatory need unclassified.
No clinical or regulatory source attached.
People
No named person assigned.
Gaps
Next verification path
ARTIFACTS
No public artifacts yet.
DEFENSIBILITY
Defensibility and confidence evidence pending.
WATCHTOWER
No verified watchtower monitor rows yet.
FORESIGHT
No prediction yet — minted on next Foresight batch.
OPPORTUNITYKERNEL CHANGES SINCE LAST VIEW
No verified OpportunityKernel changes since the last view.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE UPDATES
No verified competitive landscape changes yet.
RELATED PAPER UPDATES
No verified related paper changes yet.
SIGNAL CANVAS HISTORY AND DELTAS
No Signal Canvas history deltas yet.
TIMELINE
Save this paper to start tracking momentum - commits, demos, and score changes appear here.
No tracked events yet.
Score trend will appear after multiple data points.
BUZZ
Buzz trend pending.